By Ed Crooks, The Financial Times.

The incidence of moderate drought will double to affect half the world by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, according to a study.

Computer modelling of the effect of global warming on water levels conducted by the Met Office, Britain's official weather forecaster, also suggests severe droughts could rise sharply, in the absence of action to limit emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels.

Worsening water shortages threaten to lead to intensifying problems of starvation and international conflict.

The Met Office forecasts, to be published shortly in a US journal, are based on a projection of reasonably strong global economic growth, with no mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.
In that scenario, global temperatures rise by 1.3 to 4.5 degrees celsius by the century's end.

That would mean moderate drought-defined as water levels experienced during the driest fifth of months in a region in the past 50 years - occurring